Friday, 25 August 2017

The Neglected Titan


A couple of weeks ago, I spoke to a member of the social elite about insurance. His reply was: I do not want to talk about it now because I am not planning to die. What a shocking revelation! You can imagine how your parents would react if they uncover the policy you have taken out to pay for their funeral expenses.  It seems to be a taboo in this part of the world- unless you want to be dubbed “Prophet of Doom”. 

No one has a crystal ball. Death is no respecter of persons and could send us to an early grave. Whether you are wallowing in luxury or beggary, it does not matter to death. What happens to your dependants after you have been yanked off planet earth? Quite frankly, our extended family culture has been jettisoned and we have imbibed individualism due to westernization. So, it is suicidal to leave your children and spouse to the mercies of your relatives.

Have you ever pondered on the state of insecurity in our society- spate of armed banditry, thefts, dilapidated roads, inadequate pensions, high cost of educating children, non-existing health scheme and rising unemployment rate?  What will become of the wealth you have amassed? The hope of bequeathing your stocks, houses, exotic cars, and jewelries to posterity may be an illusion.

Insurance is a sure-fire way to secure your numerous investments and hand down wealth to progeny. There are many insurance policies tailored to fit you. Offerings include health, fire, life, burglary, education, pension annuities, professional indemnity, product liability and life savings.

You could start building a lasting wealth for small, regular payments. 


Why not include insurance in your portfolio of investments? 

Wednesday, 23 August 2017

ACCELERATE PROPERTY FUND LIMITED

Image result for accelerate property fundCompany Profile


APF, a real estate investment trust domiciled in South Africa, did not commence business until December 12, 2013.  The company invests in properties that produce streams of income that would be distributed to the unit holders.  


Revenue has been growing by 73.1% in the past three years. The investors constantly enjoy dividends because the company distributes a bulk of its net earnings to shareholders.  We believe that long-term solvency is not in doubt. Currently, it trades at R5.60 which is below our estimate for a share in the company. 





Saturday, 8 July 2017

Caverton Offshore Support Group Plc

Company Overview
Caverton Helicopters Limited and Caverton Marine Limited were the predecessors of Caverton Offshore Support Group Plc. Caverton Marine Limited, an indigenous shipping company, commenced business in 1999 while Caverton Helicopters Limited, a company involved in helicopter charter, sales and maintenance, began in 2002. They are now the subsidiaries of CAVERTON.

Investment Thesis
There was a gradual slack in revenue growth due to reduction in adhoc charter services segment across both subsidiaries.  


The cost reduction effort by the management is commendable. But quality earnings growth and stability can only be achieved by diversifying revenue base and penetrating other West African countries. The Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Facility that is being constructed in Ikeja, Lagos State would reduce capital flight and training costs for engineers and pilots. This is expected to impact earnings positively in the future.

The company has a sizeable exposure to foreign exchange risk; about half of the loans are procured in US dollars. Interest payment may erode profitability against the backdrop of dwindling business activities in the oil and gas sector.

The business is capital-intensive and this bears on the ability of the company to generate free cash flow to shareholders. Liquidity position is worsening and free cash flow is lessening, nevertheless we believe that CAVERTON can afford investors opportunity for growth of their portfolio going forward. 

Valuation
EPS was more or less flat at NGN0.3 while Book Value Per Share gained 2.2% year-on-year.  It has a trailing P/E of 3 times.  We estimate a share of CAVERTON to be worth between NGN1.7 and NGN3.1. 

Monday, 12 June 2017

Better off in Federal Government of Nigeria Bonds

The volatility of prices of oil, the mainstay of Nigeria's economy, makes government revenue unpredictable. When there is revenue shortfall, government resorts to the issuance of bonds to execute vital projects in the economy.


The contemporary approach to investing is to consider the interplay of expected return and risk. An investor should demand higher return for taking on greater risk. Skittish investors who want secure investments should embrace bonds of the Federal Government of Nigeria.

These bonds are risk-free, unlike corporate bonds and equities, because payment of interest and principal is guaranteed by the Federal Government of Nigeria. In the worst-case scenario, government will print money to settle its obligations. Also, they produce tax -free income, and could serve as collateral for loans.

Contrary to the speculation that only extremely  wealthy individuals can invest in bonds issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria, it is available to small players. Recently government introduced the Federal Savings Bonds to reduce the minimum investment so that more people,especially retail investors, can be accommodated. The minimum subscription amount is NGN5,000 with additions in multiples of NGN1,000, subject to a maximum of NGN50,000,000. It is issued monthly in tenors of 2 and 3 years, and investors are paid interest quarterly.


The FGN Bonds which are long- term debts issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria range from 2 to 10 years.They attract interest semi-annually. The minimum subscription is NGN50,001,000.

The minimum subscription for the Nigerian Treasury Bills is NGN50,001,000 with tenor ranging from 91 to 364 days. They are short-term securities issued at a discount. The investor's income is the difference between the purchase price and the amount received at maturity.

Bonds are highly liquid; an investor can sell them before maturity by approaching his banker, stockbroker or any of the licensed dealers mentioned above.


Tuesday, 30 May 2017

R.T. Briscoe (Nigeria) Plc

Company Overview

RTBRISCOE was incorporated as a private company on March 9, 1957. It went public in 1973 and was quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in March 15, 1974.  It is principally engaged in the sale and service of Toyota and Ford motor vehicles, forklifts, industrial compressors, mining and drilling equipment and generating sets. Its subsidiary, Briscoe Properties Limited, deals  in facility management, property development  and property leasing while CAWS Technical Nigeria Limited sells industrial equipment.

Mr. Clement Adekunle Olowokande is the chairman of an eight-man board comprising seven non-executive directors and one executive director.  Mr. Bukola Oluseyi Onajide  is the managing director.

Investment Thesis

The sale of motor vehicles and industrial equipment slowed. This is a cause for concern because it is the major contributor to earnings.  The company also makes money from the servicing and maintenance of Ford and Toyota motor vehicles. However, the company has recently lost its Ford dealership. This will no doubt impact earnings negatively as motor vehicles account for about 80% of its turnover.    


Property development and motor vehicle servicing both have a gross profit margin of 30%, the highest for the business. However their joint contribution to total revenue is about 10%. Management should aggressively grow the non-auto business, having lost its Ford distributorship in Nigeria. But this may be difficult in the short-run owing to declining purchasing power of consumers caused by the meltdown in the country.

RTBRISCOE is debt-laden and increasing debt servicing cost has made it difficult for the company to make profit.  A total of NGN9.3 billion was outstanding at the end of September, 2016 compared to NGN11.1 billion recorded at December, 2015. Short-term debts accounts for over half of total indebtedness . Unless the company can restructure the loans, it may face an uphill task meeting its maturing short-term obligations. Also, better working capital management will reduce untoward pressure on profitability and solvency. This is particularly important now.

Returns have not been encouraging because the company has been making losses after tax since 2012. And shareholders are not adequately compensated for their investment in the company.

Management plans to restore profitability by pruning the business of unprofitable segments, running down inventories and restructuring some of its debts.  However, we will continue to keep in touch to see how management turns around this ailing company.

AFRICA PRUDENTIAL REGISTRARS PLC

Company Overview

AFRIPRUD, formerly UBA Registrars Limited, was incorporated in March 2006. It was a spin-off from UBA Plc occasioned by the directive of the Central Bank of Nigeria to banks to divest from non-banking subsidiaries. The spin-off was approved by the shareholders on 13 December, 2012 and it was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in January 2013.  It provides share registration services to private and public companies.

The acquisition of UAC Registrars in 2013 is an asset for AFRIPRUD. UAC Registrars Limited (founded in 1978) is a former wholly owned subsidiary of UAC Nigeria Plc.
International Equity Capital controls 24.7% of its shareholding while Heirs Holdings Limited has 12.8% stake in the company.

AFRIPRUD’s investment in technology enables clients   to have access to the company’s services online. Its products include   e-registrar solutions, e-dividend, e-offer, and  e-replacement.
Peter Ashade is the Managing Director of AFRIPRUD while Chief (Mrs.) Eniola Fadayomi is the company’s chairman.


Investment Thesis

Fee income is growing despite the economic quagmire; it accounts for about 40% of revenue. The company is generating considerable income from investment in treasury bills, bonds and term deposits. Though its contribution declined in the year, it poses less risk to the company. Interest on treasury bills form the bulk of net investment income.

Investments in technology and human capital have impacted revenue positively; AFRIPRUD has recorded a 12.2% CAGR in revenue over the last three years. Improved investment capability has enabled the company to grow net investment income by 51.9% in three years. Also, we expect process automation to deliver some cost savings and efficiency going forward.


We believe if management does not relent, AFRIPRUD stands to benefit from the opportunities in the registrar industry in the country. 

Sunday, 28 May 2017

How much is PHARMDEKO worth?

Company Overview

In a bid to promote its pharmaceutical products, Parke-Davis & Company (US) started a non-trading branch in Nigeria in 1962. In 1969, it was incorporated as Parke-Davis & Co (Nig.) Limited.  And a change of name to Pharma Deko Limited was adopted in 1980. In addition to pharmaceutical products, it produces consumer products like SANS Cream Soda, Dextra Black Currant drink and Bien Flavoured water. 

The directors control about 80% of the shareholding of the company. Mr. F.R.A. Williams chairs the board while Mr. J.A. Abibu is the managing director.

Investment Thesis

Revenue growth added 5.2% to grow by 12.6% over the past three years on a 3-year CAGR basis. However, this is less than 29% achieved two years ago. Pharmaceutical division lost 4.2% whereas the consumer products segment dropped by 6%. In addition, revenue growth of its different segment has been erratic.   Administrative expenses as a ratio of turnover jumped to 74.3% from 31.4%.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) surged to NGN6.6 from NGN1. Despite a fall in revenue (year-on-year), returns to shareholders got better in the year under review.

The working capital management is a plus for the management; consequently, the company is not headed for liquidity problem. The company has been reducing its indebtedness in order that profitability will not be impaired. In fact, giant strides have been made in this regard.

Capital spending has been responsible for dwindling free cash flow. PHARMDEKO does not pay dividend regularly to shareholders.  Instead, it ploughs back its profit into the business and this has reduced the need to borrow heavily to expand the business or upgrade its capacity. We believe the shareholders stand to benefit from this going forward.


We are of the opinion that sales will rebound once the recession in Nigeria abates. Equipment overhaul halted production and led to a revenue decline in Quarter 3 of 2016. 

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